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What a day for pitching yesterday. We have a ton of aces, Kershaw was Kershaw, Greinke was excellent, Tanaka diced the White Sox and…AMIR GARRETT!
At a low ownership and price, Garrett dealt for 7 IP 2 ER and 12 strikeouts. His price is sure to rise now, but at least we caught it before the ascent.
Onto today, and for those that know me it’s #SynderbaeDay. By far my favorite pitcher in the show throws today, and he’s in a good spot!
Let’s win the buckies again tonight.
For those returning to the “On the Bump” column, welcome back. For those new to the column, welcome! I will go through my favorite pitchers each day discussing who I want to play, why I want to play them, which contests to play them in, and more.
This is not a “pick Clayton Kershaw because he’s Clayton Kershaw” column. We will dig in to the numbers. There will be days where the pitchers we like are very expensive, some days where the pitchers are bargains. MLB DFS is all about getting your pitchers right, so that’s the focal point here!
Each day there is at least one risk/reward GPP play of the day. Everyone loves spending for those stacks in tournaments, so why not give the GPP players some risk/reward options too.
In addition, I’ll provide some pitchers to target batters against. Pitching is the name of the game in MLB DFS, so “On the Bump” will be a go to each day.
A few years back, I discussed a checklist that I like to use for my pitching research. That can be found here.
Without further ado, today’s edition of “On the Bump”:
Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. PHI
- It’s Syndergaard day, every five days for six months is the best day of the week. Today is that day. Syndergaard takes the hill at home in Citi Field, making for a terrific play in DFS.
- First, the Mets are -175 favorites in a 6.5 run implied total. Check.
- Since last season, the Phillies had a .309 wOBA, a .155 ISO, and a 22.6 strikeout rate against opposing right-handed pitchers. Check.
- Syndergaard has limited opposing righties to just a .256 wOBA, a .334 slugging, and has a 31.3 strikeout rate. Lefties have a .303 wOBA and a 25.4 strikeout rate against him. Check.
- Where does Syndergaard struggle? He is very slow to the plate, allowing a ton of stolen bases. Luckily, the Phillies have only stolen seven bags this season as a team, with two coming from Tommy Joseph (never a threat) and Howie Kendrick (injured). The only real threat the Phillies have to steal bases is Cesar Hernandez. With that being said, we’re nitpicking to find weaknesses for Thor.
- At home in his career, Syndergaard has a 2.55 ERA and has allowed a wOBA of .254 and an OBP of just .256.
- What’s even scarier is that Syndergaard’s velocity is actually rising. His slider is now averaging 92 MPH this season, which is just asinine.
- That slider is now being thrown 25 percent of the time, which is a good thing because hitters only batted .162 against the pitch last season with an incredible 29 percent whiff rate, per baseballsavant. That means nearly once every three times a slider is THROWN it results in a swing and miss. Absurd.
- The Phillies weren’t one of the league’s worst against sliders, but they were against curveballs. Syndergaard has one of those as well. All in today.
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Full Disclosure Accountability
I believe in accountability in DFS, so I will update this each day with the stats of pitchers that were included in this column as the pitchers to target. Good or bad, every pitcher I discuss as a play will be added to this report. Yes, this includes the risk/reward pitchers.
Since this current format of On The Bump (starting April 11th, 2016) here are the cumulative pitching stats of those discussed:
160-128 (W-L) 3.33 ERA 2427.1 IP 900 ER 2330 K
Last “On the Bump’s” starting pitchers:
7 IP 2 ER 10 K
6 IP 1 ER 4 K
8 IP 1 ER 6 K
Risk/Reward GPP Plays
7 IP 1 ER 6 K
5 IP 4 ER 9 K
7 IP 2 ER 12 K
If you’d like to view the past On the Bump columns, they are all here.